A recent article in PropertyEU (http://bit.ly/dXPKja) and other real estate newsletters report on the last IPD/IPF conference where a number of commentator have indicated that the solvency II directive will increase insurance companies willingness to lend to real estate. This might as well be true, but between you and me Solvency II will have potentially more far reaching implication for the real estate market as a whole than just additional lending. More interestingly, one of the main commentator is reported to have said: "I expect CMBS to return 'in some form or shape ... because without access to the capital markets we don't stand a chance".
This call echoes a call made in early 2009 (and on which we have reported on http://bit.ly/dGjHo2) which read like this: "Is CMBS dead? It can't be dead--there's no other place to get [that money] from"
My 2009 post ended like this: "The investment market accelerated in 2005, and peaked in 2007. The refinancing will mainly come to the market between 2010 and 2013. By then a lot of things can happen. Or not."
Considering what was said at the IPD conference, it seems that some in the industry are still praying for the resurgence of the CMBS market to sort out the mess. I guess that nothing really happened after all. Except that time is clicking.
In the meantime, alstria has been doing a little bit more than praying. Bring it on, we are all set.
Olivier
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